A powerful approach to identify replicable variants in genome-wide association studies.

Replicability is the cornerstone of modern scientific research. Reliable identifications of genotype-phenotype associations that are significant in multiple genome-wide association studies (GWASs) provide stronger evidence for the findings. Current replicability analysis relies on the independence assumption among single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ignores the linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure. We show that such a strategy may produce either overly liberal or overly conservative results in practice. We develop an efficient method, ReAD, to detect replicable SNPs associated with the phenotype from two GWASs accounting for the LD structure. The local dependence structure of SNPs across two heterogeneous studies is captured by a four-state hidden Markov model (HMM) built on two sequences of p values. By incorporating information from adjacent locations via the HMM, our approach provides more accurate SNP significance rankings. ReAD is scalable, platform independent, and more powerful than existing replicability analysis methods with effective false discovery rate control. Through analysis of datasets from two asthma GWASs and two ulcerative colitis GWASs, we show that ReAD can identify replicable genetic loci that existing methods might otherwise miss.

Cost-utility analysis of add-on vericiguat for the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in China.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-utility of the addition of vericiguat for treating chronic heart failure (CHF) in China from the healthcare payer's perspective. METHODS: A Markov model was built to estimate the cost and utility of treating CHF using vericiguat plus standard treatment (vericiguat group) vs. standard treatment alone (standard treatment group). The clinical parameters (mortality of cardiovascular and hospitalization rate of HF) were calculated according to the VICTORIA clinical trial. The HF cost and utility data were obtained from the literature published in China. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed. RESULTS: According to the 13-year model, vericiguat was more expensive (155599.07 CNY vs. 259396.83 CNY) and more effective (4.41 QALYs vs. 4.54 QALYs). The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was 802389.27 CNY per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that cardiovascular mortality in the two groups was the parameter that had the greatest impact on the results. The GDP per capita in 2022 in China was 85,700 CNY. The probability sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed that the probability of vericiguat being cost-effective was only 41.7% at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 3 times GDP per capita (257,100 CNY). CONCLUSIONS: In China, the treatment of CHF with vericiguat is not cost-effective. The drug price could decrease to 145.8 CNY, which could be considered cost-effective.

Post-task responses following working memory and movement are driven by transient spectral bursts with similar characteristics.

The post-movement beta rebound has been studied extensively using magnetoencephalography (MEG) and is reliably modulated by various task parameters as well as illness. Our recent study showed that rebounds, which we generalise as "post-task responses" (PTRs), are a ubiquitous phenomenon in the brain, occurring across the cortex in theta, alpha, and beta bands. Currently, it is unknown whether PTRs following working memory are driven by transient bursts, which are moments of short-lived high amplitude activity, similar to those that drive the post-movement beta rebound. Here, we use three-state univariate hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can identify bursts without a priori knowledge of frequency content or response timings, to compare bursts that drive PTRs in working memory and visuomotor MEG datasets. Our results show that PTRs across working memory and visuomotor tasks are driven by pan-spectral transient bursts. These bursts have very similar spectral content variation over the cortex, correlating strongly between the two tasks in the alpha (R2 = .89) and beta (R2 = .53) bands. Bursts also have similar variation in duration over the cortex (e.g., long duration bursts occur in the motor cortex for both tasks), strongly correlating over cortical regions between tasks (R2 = .56), with a mean over all regions of around 300 ms in both datasets. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of HMMs to isolate signals of interest in MEG data, such that the HMM probability timecourse correlates more strongly with reaction times than frequency filtered power envelopes from the same brain regions. Overall, we show that induced PTRs across different tasks are driven by bursts with similar characteristics, which can be identified using HMMs. Given the similarity between bursts across tasks, we suggest that PTRs across the cortex may be driven by a common underlying neural phenomenon.

Markovian Approach for Exploring Competitive Diseases with Heterogeneity-Evidence from COVID-19 and Influenza in China.

Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.

Cost-effectiveness of restorative treatments for permanent molars with severe molar incisor hypomineralization: perspectives for the Brazilian public health system.

OBJECTIVES: To undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis of restorative treatments for a first permanent molar with severe molar incisor hypomineralization from the perspective of the Brazilian public system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two models were constructed: a one-year decision tree and a ten-year Markov model, each based on a hypothetical cohort of one thousand individuals through Monte Carlo simulation. Eight restorative strategies were evaluated: high viscosity glass ionomer cement (HVGIC); encapsulated GIC; etch and rinse adhesive + composite; self-etch adhesive + composite; preformed stainless steel crown; HVGIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite; HVGIC + self-etch adhesive + composite, and encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite. Effectiveness data were sourced from the literature. Micro-costing was applied using 2022 USD market averages with a 5% variation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), net monetary benefit (%NMB), and the budgetary impact were obtained. RESULTS: Cost-effective treatments included HVGIC (%NMB = 0%/ 0%), encapsulated GIC (%NMB = 19.4%/ 19.7%), and encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite (%NMB = 23.4%/ 24.5%) at 1 year and 10 years, respectively. The benefit gain of encapsulated GIC + etch and rinse adhesive + composite in relation to encapsulated GIC was small when compared to the cost increase at 1 year (gain of 3.28% and increase of USD 24.26) and 10 years (gain of 4% and increase of USD 15.54). CONCLUSION: Within the horizon and perspective analyzed, the most cost-effective treatment was encapsulated GIC restoration. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study can provide information for decision-making.

Traffic trajectory data analysis technology based on HMM model map matching algorithm.

The rapid growth of traffic trajectory data and the development of positioning technology have driven the demand for its analysis. However, in the current application scenarios, there are some problems such as the deviation between positioning data and real roads and low accuracy of existing trajectory data traffic prediction models. Therefore, a map matching algorithm based on hidden Markov models is proposed in this study. The algorithm starts from the global route, selects K nearest candidate paths, and identifies candidate points through the candidate paths. It uses changes in speed, angle, and other information to generate a state transition matrix that match trajectory points to the actual route. When processing trajectory data in the experiment, K = 5 is selected as the optimal value, the algorithm takes 51 ms and the accuracy is 95.3%. The algorithm performed well in a variety of road conditions, especially in parallel and mixed road sections, with an accuracy rate of more than 96%. Although the time loss of this algorithm is slightly increased compared with the traditional algorithm, its accuracy is stable. Under different road conditions, the accuracy of the algorithm is 98.3%, 97.5%, 94.8% and 96%, respectively. The accuracy of the algorithm based on traditional hidden Markov models is 95.9%, 95.7%, 95.4% and 94.6%, respectively. It can be seen that the accuracy of the algorithm designed has higher precision. The experiment proves that the map matching algorithms based on hidden Markov models is superior to other algorithms in terms of matching accuracy. This study makes the processing of traffic trajectory data more accurate.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adult pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for pneumococcal disease in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) is used in the Japanese National Immunization Program for older adults and adults with increased risk for pneumococcal disease, however, disease incidence and associated burden remain high. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) for adults aged 65 years and high-risk adults aged 60-64 years in Japan. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using a Markov model, we evaluated lifetime costs using societal and healthcare payer perspectives and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and number of prevented cases and deaths caused by invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and non-IPD. The base case analysis used a societal perspective. RESULTS: In comparison with PPSV23, the 20-valent PCV (PCV20) prevented 127 IPD cases 10,813 non-IPD cases (inpatients: 2,461, outpatients: 8,352) and 226 deaths, and gained more QALYs (+0.0015 per person) with less cost (-JPY22,513 per person). All sensitivity and scenario analyses including a payer perspective analysis indicated that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were below the cost-effectiveness threshold value in Japan (JPY5 million/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: PCV20 is both cost saving and more effective than PPSV23 for adults aged 65 years and high-risk adults aged 60-64 years in Japan.

Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model.

Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence). These probabilities were assumed to follow a series of mixed multiple logistic regressions. When Zika was present, assuming that the cases follow a negative binomial distribution, we estimated the transmission intensity rate. Our results indicate that Zika emerged/re-emerged sooner and that transmission was intensified in municipalities that were more densely populated, at lower altitudes and/or with less vegetation cover. Warmer temperatures and less weekly-accumulated rain were also associated with Zika emergence. Zika cases persisted for longer in more densely populated areas with more cases reported in the previous week. Overall, population density, elevation, and temperature were identified as the main contributors to the first Zika epidemic in Colombia. We also estimated the probability of Zika presence by municipality and week, and the results suggest that the disease circulated undetected by the surveillance system on many occasions. Our results offer insights into priority areas for public health interventions against emerging and re-emerging Aedes-borne diseases.

An intelligent model to decode students' behavioral states in physical education using back propagation neural network and Hidden Markov Model.

This paper highlights the need for intelligent analysis of students' behavioral states in physical education tasks. The hand-ring inertial data is used to identify students' motion sequence states. First, statistical feature extraction is performed based on the acceleration and angular velocity data collected from the bracelet. After completing the filtering and noise reduction of the data, we perform feature extraction by Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and use the sliding window method for analysis. Finally, the classification capability of the model sequence is enhanced by the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The experimental results indicate that the classification accuracy of student action sequences in physical education exceeds 96% after optimization by the HMM method. This provides intelligent means and new ideas for future student state recognition in physical education and teaching reform.

The Pentameric Ligand-Gated Ion Channel Family: A New Member of the Voltage Gated Ion Channel Superfamily?

In this report we present seven lines of bioinformatic evidence supporting the conclusion that the Pentameric Ligand-gated Ion Channel (pLIC) Family is a member of the Voltage-gated Ion Channel (VIC) Superfamily. In our approach, we used the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB) as a reference and applied a series of bioinformatic methods to search for similarities between the pLIC family and members of the VIC superfamily. These include: (1) sequence similarity, (2) compatibility of topology and hydropathy profiles, (3) shared domains, (4) conserved motifs, (5) similarity of Hidden Markov Model profiles between families, (6) common 3D structural folds, and (7) clustering analysis of all families. Furthermore, sequence and structural comparisons as well as the identification of a 3-TMS repeat unit in the VIC superfamily suggests that the sixth transmembrane segment evolved into a re-entrant loop. This evidence suggests that the voltage-sensor domain and the channel domain have a common origin. The classification of the pLIC family within the VIC superfamily sheds light onto the topological origins of this family and its evolution, which will facilitate experimental verification and further research into this superfamily by the scientific community.

Early Aggregation Mechanism of SOD128-38 Based on Force Field Parameter of 5-Cyano-Tryptophan.

The aggregation of superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) results in amyloid deposition and is involved in familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a fatal motor neuron disease. There have been extensive studies of its aggregation mechanism. Noncanonical amino acid 5-cyano-tryptophan (5-CN-Trp), which has been incorporated into the amyloid segments of SOD1 as infrared probes to increase the structural sensitivity of IR spectroscopy, is found to accelerate the overall aggregation rate and potentially modulate the aggregation process. Despite these observations, the underlying mechanism remains elusive. Here, we optimized the force field parameters of 5-CN-Trp and then used molecular dynamics simulation along with the Markov state model on the SOD128-38 dimer to explore the kinetics of key intermediates in the presence and absence of 5-CN-Trp. Our findings indicate a significantly increased probability of protein aggregate formation in 5CN-Trp-modified ensembles compared to wildtype. Dimeric ß-sheets of different natures were observed exclusively in the 5CN-Trp-modified peptides, contrasting with wildtype simulations. Free-energy calculations and detailed analyses of the dimer structure revealed augmented interstrand interactions attributed to 5-CN-Trp, which contributed more to peptide affinity than any other residues. These results explored the key events critical for the early nucleation of amyloid-prone proteins and also shed light on the practice of using noncanonical derivatives to study the aggregation mechanism.

Computational Analysis of Activation of Dimerized Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Kinase Using the String Method and Markov State Model.

Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) activation is accompanied by dimerization. During the activation of the intracellular kinase domain, two EGFR kinases form an asymmetric dimer, and one side of the dimer (receiver) is activated. Using the string method and Markov state model (MSM), we performed a computational analysis of the structural changes in the activation of the EGFR dimer in this study. The string method reveals the minimum free-energy pathway (MFEP) from the inactive to active structure. The MSM was constructed from numerous trajectories of molecular dynamics simulations around the MFEP, which revealed the free-energy map of structural changes. In the activation of the receiver kinase, the unfolding of the activation loop (A-loop) is followed by the rearrangement of the C-helix, as observed in other kinases. However, unlike other kinases, the free-energy map of EGFR at the asymmetric dimer showed that the active state yielded the highest stability and revealed how interactions at the dimer interface induced receiver activation. As the H-helix of the activator approaches the C-helix of the receiver during activation, the A-loop unfolds. Subsequently, L782 of the receiver enters the pocket between the G- and H-helices of the activator, leading to a rearrangement of the hydrophobic residues around L782 of the receiver, which constitutes a structural rearrangement of the C-helix of the receiver from an outward to an inner position. The MSM analysis revealed long-time scale trajectories via kinetic Monte Carlo.

Lifetime costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand: protocol for an incidence-based cost-of-illness study using Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Several prevalence-based cost-of-illness (COI) studies have been conducted to estimate the economic burden of alcohol consumption borne by a particular society in a given year. Yet there are few studies examining the economic costs incurred by an individual drinker over his/her lifetime. Thus, this study aims to estimate the costs incurred by an individual drinker's alcohol consumption over his or her lifetime in Thailand. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An incidence-based COI approach will be employed. To project individuals' associated costs over a lifetime, a Markov modelling technique will be used. The following six alcohol-related diseases/conditions will be considered in the model: hypertension, haemorrhagic stroke, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, alcohol use disorders and road injury. The analysis will cover both direct (ie, direct healthcare cost, costs of property damage due to road traffic accidents) and indirect costs (ie, productivity loss due to premature mortality and hospital-related absenteeism). The human capital approach will be adopted to estimate the cost of productivity loss. All costs will be presented in Thai baht, 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Institutional Review Board of Mahidol University, Faculty of Dentistry/Faculty of Pharmacy has confirmed that no ethical approval is required (COE.No.MU-DT/PY-IRB 2021/010.0605). Dissemination of the study findings will be carried out through peer-reviewed publications, conferences and engagement with policy-makers and public health stakeholders.

Design of Bio-Optical Transceiver for In Vivo Biomedical Sensor Applications.

This paper presents an enhanced version of our previously developed bio-optical transceiver, presenting a significant advancement in nanosensor technology. Using self-assembled polymers, this nanodevice is capable of electron detection while maintaining biocompatibility, an essential feature for in vivo medical biosensors. This enhancement finds significance in the field of infectious disease control, particularly in the early detection of respiratory viruses, including high-threat pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2. The proposed system harnesses bioluminescence by converting electric signaling to visible blue light, effectively opening the path of linking nano-sized mechanisms to larger-scale systems, thereby pushing the boundaries of in vivo biomedical sensing. The performance evaluation of our technology is analytical and is based on the use of Markov chains, through which we assess the bit error probability. The calculated improvements indicate that this technology qualifies as a forerunner in terms of supporting the communication needs of smaller, safer, and more efficient manufactured sensor technologies for in vivo medical applications.

The cost-effectiveness of a bimekizumab versus IL-17A inhibitors treatment-pathway in patients with active axial spondyloarthritis in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a treatment-pathway initiated with bimekizumab, a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F and IL-17A, in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) compared with IL-17Ai's, ixekizumab, and secukinumab, from the NHS Scotland perspective. METHODS: The axSpA treatment-pathway was modeled using a decision tree followed by a lifetime Markov model. The pathway included first- and second-line biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARD), followed by best supportive care (bDMARD, nonbiologic). Bimekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("BKZ") was compared with IL-17Ai's: secukinumab 150 mg followed by a blend ("SEC") of dose up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg and any bDMARD, or ixekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("IXE"). Transition to the next therapy was triggered by Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index-50% (BASDAI50) non-response or any-cause discontinuation. A published network meta-analysis provided efficacy data. EuroQoL-5-dimensions utilities were derived by mapping from Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score. Costs included disease management (linked to functional limitations), biologics acquisition (list prices), administration and monitoring (NHS 2021/22). Discounting was 3.5%/year. Probabilistic results from patients with non-radiographic axSpA and ankylosing spondylitis were averaged to reflect the axSpA disease spectrum. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of BKZ was £24,801/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) vs. SEC (95% credible interval £24,163-£25,895). BKZ had similar costs (Δ -£385 [-£15,239-£14,468]) and QALYs (Δ 0.039 [-0.748-0.825]) to IXE, with £1,523 (£862-£2,222) net monetary benefit. Conclusions remained unchanged in most scenarios. Results' drivers included BASDAI50 response rate and disease management cost. LIMITATIONS: Results were based on list prices. Data concerning up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg was scarce. CONCLUSIONS: The bimekizumab treatment-pathway represents a cost-effective option across the axSpA disease spectrum in Scotland. Bimekizumab is cost-effective compared to a secukinumab-pathway that includes dose up-titration, and has similar costs and QALYs to an ixekizumab-pathway.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Vericiguat in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction After Worsening Heart Failure Events in China.

OBJECTIVE: Vericiguat is a new medication to demonstrate clinical efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) after worsening heart failure (WHF) events, but its cost-utility was unknown. We aimed to assess the cost-utility of combining the application of vericiguat with standard treatment in HFrEF patients who had WHF events. METHODS: A multistate Markov model was implemented to mimic the economic results of HFrEF patients who had WHF events in China after receiving vericiguat or placebo. An analysis of cost-utility was conducted; most parameters were set according to the published studies and related databases. All the utilities and costs were decreased at a rate of 5% annually. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were the primary outcome measure. We also conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Over a 20 year lifetime horizon, additional use of vericiguat led to an elevated cost from US$9725.03 to US$20,660.76 at the current vericiguat costs. This was related to increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from 2.50 to 2.66, along with an ICER of US$65,057.24 per QALY, which was over the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$36,096.30 per QALY. If the vericiguat costs were discounted at 80%, it contributed to an ICER of US$12,226.77 per QALY. Additional use of vericiguat for patients with plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) of ≤ 5314 pg per ml produced an ICER of US$23,688.46 per QALY. The outcomes of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed the risk of death from cardiovascular disease in both groups was variable with the highest sensitivity. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that 41.6% of the mimicked population receiving vericiguat combined with standard therapy was cost-effective at the WTP threshold of US$36,096.30 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: From the perspective of Chinese public healthcare system, the combined use of vericiguat and standard treatment in patients with HFrEF following WHF events did not generate advantages in cost-utility in China but was a cost-effective therapeutic strategy for those who with plasma NT-proBNP of ≤ 5314 pg per ml.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluoride varnish application in preventing Root caries in elderly persons: a Markov simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Root caries are prevalent issues that affect dental health, particularly among elderly individuals with exposed root surfaces. Fluoride therapy has shown effectiveness in preventing root caries, but limited studies have addressed its cost-effectiveness in elderly persons population. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a fluoride treatment program for preventing root caries in elderly persons within the context of Chinese public healthcare. METHODS: A Markov simulation model was adopted for the cost-effectiveness analysis in a hypothetical scenario from a healthcare system perspective. A 60-year-old subject with 23 teeth was simulated for 20 years. A 5% sodium fluoride varnish treatment was compared with no preventive intervention in terms of effectiveness and cost. Tooth years free of root caries were set as the effect. Transition probabilities were estimated from the data of a community-based cohort and published studies, and costs were based on documents published by the government. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of data uncertainty. RESULTS: Fluoride treatment was more effective (with a difference of 10.20 root caries-free tooth years) but also more costly (with a difference of ¥1636.22). The ICER was ¥160.35 per root caries-free tooth year gained. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the risk ratio of root caries in the fluoride treatment group influenced the result most. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, fluoride treatment was cost-effective in 70.5% of the simulated cases. CONCLUSIONS: Regular 5% sodium fluoride varnish application was cost-effective for preventing root caries in the elderly persons in most scenarios with the consideration of data uncertainty, but to a limited extent. Improved public dental health awareness may reduce the incremental cost and make the intervention more cost-effective. Overall, the study shed light on the economic viability and impact of such preventive interventions, providing a scientific basis for dental care policies and healthcare resource allocation.

Deconvolution and Analysis of the 1H NMR Spectra of Crude Reaction Mixtures.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is an important analytical technique in synthetic organic chemistry, but its integration into high-throughput experimentation workflows has been limited by the necessity of manually analyzing the NMR spectra of new chemical entities. Current efforts to automate the analysis of NMR spectra rely on comparisons to databases of reported spectra for known compounds and, therefore, are incompatible with the exploration of new chemical space. By reframing the NMR spectrum of a reaction mixture as a joint probability distribution, we have used Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Markov Chain and density functional theory to fit the predicted NMR spectra to those of crude reaction mixtures. This approach enables the deconvolution and analysis of the spectra of mixtures of compounds without relying on reported spectra. The utility of our approach to analyze crude reaction mixtures is demonstrated with the experimental spectra of reactions that generate a mixture of isomers, such as Wittig olefination and C-H functionalization reactions. The correct identification of compounds in a reaction mixture and their relative concentrations is achieved with a mean absolute error as low as 1%.

Cost-effectiveness of rimegepant oral lyophilisate compared to best supportive care for the acute treatment of migraine in the UK.

AIMS: Migraine is the most common disabling headache disorder and is characterized by recurrent throbbing head pain and symptoms of photophobia, phonophobia, nausea, and vomiting. Rimegepant 75 mg, an oral lyophilisate calcitonin gene-related peptide antagonist, is the first treatment approved for both the acute and preventative treatment of migraine, and the first acute therapy approved in over 20-years. The objective was to assess the cost-utility of rimegepant compared with best supportive care (BSC) in the UK, for the acute treatment of migraine in the adults with inadequate symptom relief after taking at least 2 triptans, or for whom triptans are contraindicated or not tolerated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A de novo model was developed to estimate incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), structured as a decision tree followed by Markov model. Patients received rimegepant or BSC for a migraine attack and were assessed for response (pain relief at 2-h). Responders and non-responders followed different pain trajectories over 48-h cycles. Non-responders discontinued treatment while responders continued treatment for subsequent attacks, with a proportion discontinuing over time. Data sources included a post-hoc pooled analysis of the phase 3 acute rimegepant trials (NCT03235479, NCT03237845, NCT03461757), and a long-term safety study (NCT03266588). The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a 20-year time horizon. RESULTS: Rimegepant resulted in an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of £10,309 per QALY gained vs BSC, which is cost-effectiveness at a willingness to pay threshold of £30,000/QALY. Rimegepant generated +0.44 incremental QALYs and higher incremental lifetime costs (£4,492). Improved QALYs for rimegepant were a result of less time spent with severe and moderate headache pain. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the economic value of rimegepant which was found to be cost-effective for the acute treatment of migraine in adults unsuitable for triptans.

Evaluating the health and economic outcomes of a PCV15 vaccination program for adults aged 65 years-and-above in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the health and economic outcomes of a PCV13 or PCV15 age-based (65 years-and-above) vaccination program in Switzerland. INTERVENTIONS: The three vaccination strategies examined were:Target population: All adults aged 65 years-and-above. Perspective(s): Switzerland health care payer. TIME HORIZON: 35 years. Discount rate: 3.0%. Costing year: 2023 Swiss Francs (CHF). STUDY DESIGN: A static Markov state-transition model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature and publicly available databases or reports. OUTCOME MEASURES: Pneumococcal diseases (PD) i.e., invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) and non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (NBPP); total quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (CHF/QALY gained). RESULTS: Using an assumed coverage of 60%, the PCV15 strategy prevented a substantially higher number of cases/deaths than the PCV13 strategy when compared to the No vaccination strategy (1,078 IPD; 21,155 NBPP; 493 deaths). The overall total QALYs were 10,364,620 (PCV15), 10,364,070 (PCV13), and 10,362,490 (no vaccination). The associated overall total costs were CHF 741,949,814 (PCV15), CHF 756,051,954 (PCV13) and CHF 698,329,579 (no vaccination). Thus, the PCV13 strategy was strongly dominated by the PCV15 strategy. The ICER of the PCV15 strategy (vs. no vaccination) was CHF 20,479/QALY gained. In two scenario analyses where the vaccine effectiveness for serotype 3 were reduced (75% to 39.3% for IPD; 45% to 23.6% for NBPP) and NBPP incidence was increased (from 1,346 to 1,636/100,000), the resulting ICERs were CHF 29,432 and CHF 13,700/QALY gained, respectively. The deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the qualitative results-the estimated ICERs for the PCV15 strategy (vs. No vaccination) were all below CHF 30,000/QALYs gained. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that using PCV15 among adults aged 65 years-and-above can prevent a substantial number of PD cases and deaths while remaining cost-effective over a range of inputs and scenarios.